I exited with a nominal loss, seeing that this trade was not going to go in my direction. It proceeded the next week to go in my direction, but it was not prudent to hold over the weekend.
More clues were to be found on the advancers:
The change in MACD on the advancers and decliners must be taken seriously, no matter how much I think the market 'should' do something different!
The TRIN also is an indication of potential market movement. The TRIN was not particularly strong this day, as seen in this chart:
The TRIN had bullish moving averages but never stayed above 1.0. The candle which hit 1.0 shows a topping tail, an indication of lack of conviction on some level.
One more clue was seen in the volume charts. The down volume, although showing white MACD, was not showing the strength which is normally necessary for a strong down move. Therefore, the initial down move upon opening my put position was the trade to take. There was a failed low, after which the price consolidated tightly for the remainder of the day. White MACD grew on the 5-minute, 10-minute, and 15-minute charts as a result of this consolidation. Price then moved up, pulled back, and closed flat to up on the day.
The last clue was seen in the Russell Futures. This chart showed white MACD on the 15-minute and 30-minute charts midday:
After this white MACD appeared, there was still some time to get out of a put position without losing any money.
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